趣头条It is listed, and it is also on the NASDAQ. Moreover, the first day closed up by 128.43%, and the trading was suspended for five times, with a market value of more than 5.8 billion US dollars.
This stock price trend is like a lot of fight. Because "fake goods" and "cottage" have always been the black clouds on the bulls, the stock price after the listing has also slipped from the peak of $27 to the lowest of $17.22. Similarly, the headlines that were once called by the media as "the information industry is much more" have also been plagued by copyright issues. Content that is crawled from the Internet, full of gimmicks, and low-end kitsch is gradually being labeled as a headline.
Whether is this fun headline going to be the next one?
一,趣头条与拼多多, different roads, similar scenes
The reason why the discussion headlines will be the next one is because there are many similar points.
1, also the victory of rural encircling cities
From June 2016 to 2018, today's two-and-a-half-year-old fun headline has become the second mobile content aggregation application, only Next to today's headlines. According to the data of the prospectus and the third party, the number of active users of the fun heads has reached 48.8 million, and the daily active users are also close to 17.1 million. The average time spent by each user is close to 55.6 minutes, the login rate is as high as 95%, and the cumulative installed capacity is It reached 154 million, and the number of people per week opened more than 50 times. The average daily commentary exceeded 280,000, and the number of readings per person exceeded 20, far higher than the industry average.
Such a good result, a lot of information-based APP sighs, not to mention those big products that are highly hoped and heavily supported. This may be the result of the unparalleled positioning of the interesting headlines since its inception. As Tan Siliang, the founder of the fun headline, said that all the operation and promotion models of the fun headlines are carefully designed around the users of the three cities below the line, including the online earning mode and the direct selling mode. Such a user group overlaps with the height of the spell.
According to the data of Analysys International, as of the end of 2017, the number of mobile users in the third-tier and below cities reached 496 million, accounting for 51.1% of the total mobile users, with an average of 0.5 mobile devices per person. In the next period, the growth of mobile users in the third-tier cities and below will far exceed that of first- and second-tier cities, and is expected to reach 599 million in 2020. According to Tencent's research, in 2017, the demand for online readers, online videos, online music, online games, and broadcasts in the sinking market is higher than the overall level of mobile Internet users. In the sinking market, there is a widespread lack of entertainment venues and low work pressures. The demand for leisure and entertainment of the people is far from being met. This means that the funny headline still has a "machine" to take. Interesting headline CFO Wang Jingbo said that the “five rings” users are not the core goal of the interesting headline in the short term, and will continue to expand in the cities below the third and fourth tiers in the future. In other words, the focus is on “sinking the market”. Although the sinking market is very similar to the unexplored virgin land, it has already formed the inherent ecology. As far as the fun headlines are concerned, the cities below the three-line sinking have indeed avoided the fierce competition in the Red Sea, but in small towns, they have to compete with the previous residents’ leisure modes such as mahjong and Internet cafes. The stage is more like a supplement to the original entertainment space, and its market also requires fierce competition in order to completely transform the leisure mode.
2, are caught in the fierce battle of imitation, and then start the burning of money wars
. In the fun of the headline simulation, relying on the "social relationship chain" spread, similar information platforms sneak out, including Amoy A series of mobile content aggregation platforms, such as news, Yuetou, Huitou, and Mietou, have made the mobile content aggregation platform available to customers.
In the current high homogenization competition, the fun headline can only be differentiated from other platforms by continuously increasing the monetary reward or improving the quality of its own content. The fun headline puts the treasure on the monetary reward, according to the prospectus data, the interesting headline consumes a lot of capital on the user loyalty program. In 2016, it invested 50.9 million yuan, accounting for 87.8% of the same period; in 2017, it invested 419.6 million yuan, accounting for 81.2% of the same period. In the first half of 2018, it invested 611.9 million yuan, accounting for 85.2% of the same period. However, from the characteristics of the information aggregation platform, because no information is produced, only the handling, the information of each platform is based on network capture and media. The platform of the interesting headline does not reward the author very much, and it does not absorb high-quality content. Tan Siliang, co-founder and chairman of the funny headline, also admitted: "The establishment of the interesting headline is short, and the content platform needs to have a certain scale effect. At present, the degree of input to the author is not enough. This is a certain distance from other platforms, and will accelerate the future. From the previous prospectus, most of the funds for the fun headline are used in cash promotion and investment to retain users. But , except for money incentives, the funny headline does not make a big difference with any information platform. This is a reflection of the weakness of the moat itself.
3, all frantic financing, even bloodshed, but only to fill the funding gap caused by burning money
In exchange for crazy money, there is also a growth in performance. The interest in the 2016 revenue is 57.95 million yuan, and in 2017 it was 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 9 times. In the first half of 2018, the interest rate revenue was 720 million yuan. Yuan, which is 1.4 times the income of the whole year.
Unfortunately, the doubled income still does not solve the loss problem. The funny headlines are still in the mud that burns money and guests, and can't extricate themselves. Fun headline 2016 net loss of 10.9 million yuan, 2017 net loss of 94.8 million yuan, 2018 first half of the net loss of 514.4 million yuan. Even after removing 180 million of incentives for the two founders' equity incentives, the actual loss of the first head of 2018 was 330 million, compared with only 28.3 million in the same period of 2017, an increase of nearly 11 times. But in order to maintain this growth rate (more is that the face project has already begun to do, it has to continue to do so), only continue to raise funds. On October 1, 2017, the fun headline received $42 million in Series A financing. On March 16 this year, the fun headline completed more than $200 million in Series B financing, with an overall post-investment valuation of more than $1.6 billion. Just last month, the fun headline reintroduced strategic investment including the funds of People's Daily Online, with an investment of about 60 million US dollars, and the valuation rose again, reaching 2.7 billion US dollars. Not long ago, the fun headline also received a subscription intention of 40 million US dollars from Jingdong Group, and at the same time received a strategic investment in the news of the poster group.
8月18日, the early headline announced the submission of a prospectus to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, wants to list on the Nasdaq, and raised more than 300 million US dollars. In less than half a month, the funny headline updated the prospectus on September 4, and delayed the listing on September 14. It is expected to issue 16 million ADSs, representing approximately 4 million common shares of Class A shares. The issue price is between $7.00-9.00/ADS. According to calculations, the amount of funds raised by the fun headline was between US$112 million and US$1.444 billion, and the amount of financing was suddenly reduced.
But the bigger problem is not the amount of financing, but the 趣头条 is still only the rough play of the traditional Internet, relying on burning money to seize the users, and hopes to raise the capital to continue for themselves. Life, but the capital will not take over, and it is unknown how much it will cost to take over. According to the second quarter earnings report after the listing, the accumulated net loss has reached 7.8 billion. How much loss will the interest headline after the listing?
二,趣头条和拼多多, similar situation, different life
潇湘财经 believes that the fun headline is unlikely to become the second fight, the reason is four:
1, get rid of The vulgar hats that can't be made can only make the funny headlines a stepping stone for educational users.
趣头条 is similar to the low-cost e-commerce "black horse", which is based on WeChat and QQ. Form to build your own user ecology, the more people there are, the more benefits users get. This has also led to the main focus of the fun headline on how to get more users, but not so much about the content of the platform. The People’s Daily published an article in the May of this year, "People’s Daily Survey, "Sweeping News, Earning Cash," App: Content is low-quality, being squandered in the content of the article. The low-end content of the content is full of fake news and vulgarity. information. Once the low-end saying of the huge credibility of the media has become synonymous with the funny headlines, it is difficult for the funny headline to take off this unpleasant and more difficult hat. In the rise of the fight, Ma Yun once said that let the fight to educate users for themselves. That interesting headline, do you know that you are not educating users for today's headlines?
2, the user's "downgrade" will only make the commercial value of the fun headline accelerate "downgrade"
在居居上海, the heart of the rural elite, although they know the human weakness, but also It should be understood that users are not as stupid as they think. A user who only uses the funny headline as a money-making tool does not actually pay attention to any information published by the funny headline. More importantly, the fun headline introduces the online earning model of traffic, which may lead to an illiterate who can earn money on the fun headline as long as he is taught. According to the Ministry of Education and third-party statistics, there are as many as 87 million illiterates in China, of which about 20 million are illiterate young and middle-aged people aged 15 to 50, and 90% are in rural areas. Such users, although creating a platform boom, but the conversion rate of ads is not high, even if users have click-through conversions, it is not what advertisers expect. 根据教育部和第三方统计，我国文盲高达8700万，其中2000万左右为15至50岁的青壮年文盲，而且90%在农村。这样的用户，虽然造就了平台的繁荣，但广告的转化率并不高，即使用户有点击有转化，也并未是广告商所期望的状态。
Because the user of the fun headline is downgraded, it is inevitable that the consumer demand is degraded. Because the user of the interesting headline is downgraded, it is inevitable that the consumer demand is degraded. According to the statistics of China Statistical Yearbook, the top 20% of residents with the highest income level in China have a per capita disposable income of 5,925.95 yuan in 2016 and the lowest income of 20%. In 2016, the per capita disposable income was only 5528.7 yuan. Less than one tenth of the high-income group. According to some data, “the average monthly income in rural poverty-stricken areas is only about 600 yuan. According to the local living standards, such income is only enough to eat four bowls of fried noodles a day.” Target users like the headlines, watching the news is just to make a little money, improve the food, all the money is used for daily expenses, and simply can not afford to buy the products on the headlines. Therefore, once the advertiser finds that the traffic of the interesting headline does not bring benefits to itself, it depends on the interesting headline of advertising revenue, and it will be imaginable.
3, lack of licenses, the risk of the headline is greater
In the prospectus, the funny headline said that in the future, it may encounter problems such as strict policy supervision, single revenue structure, and decreased user loyalty. Among them, the interesting headline indicates that the company has not yet obtained the Internet News Information Service License and Information Network. Dissemination of Audiovisual Program Licenses. "Internet News Information Service License" is the result of the newly revised "Internet News Information Service Management Regulations" issued by the Internet Information Office on June 1, 2017. It is the first to incorporate Weibo, Weibo and webcast new media formats into the scope of supervision. The relevant units are required to obtain the "Internet News Information Service License". The funny headline without a certificate, once the government stops the news service, it will be a major setback.
According to the report of the Beijing News reporter, the interesting headline also did not receive the "Information Network Broadcasting Audiovisual Program License." According to the "Internet Audiovisual Program Service Management Regulations" implemented in 2008, all Internet companies engaged in network audiovisual business services shall obtain the "Information Network Communication Audiovisual Program License" issued by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, otherwise it will constitute illegal operation. However, the license is not easy to obtain. In the case of a more stringent policy environment, it is difficult to issue certificates, and the number of documents required to operate network services is increasing. The lack of documents, although it will not cause the Internet company to immediately stop operating, but this is always the sword of Dakmoos hanging over the head, do not know when and where, will be a fatal blow to the funny headlines.
4, open a new track, a few heads of interest,
拼多多的成功, gave the fun heads. But e-commerce and content consumption are completely different models. Tan Siliang, the co-founder and chairman, clearly understands this truth. He said in an interview with 36: "In the future, we hope to become a pan-entertainment content platform, such as information, video, novels, stories, comics, and Audio. Information is just the most easy to cut into the crowd of media."
Since then, the ambition of the fun head is revealed, intending to enter the field of all spending time, to build a huge entertainment empire. But such a plan is also the way most entertainment companies are taking. Not to mention the Internet giants of BAT, the headline of the headline of today’s headlines is beating, and the three products of the vibrato, the volcano video, and the watermelon video are all well-known. The products of users over 100 million are on the self-media platform and question and answer platform. , social platforms, games and other areas of the layout. In terms of content consumption, users have too many choices, and interesting headlines, in addition to the benefits that can bring real money, there is no excuse to encourage users to stay.
总之,趣头条, obviously can not become the next fight a lot, once the financing of the funds burned out, the funny headlines are left to the market, or only the back of the stunned.
潇湘财经(WeChat ID: XiaoxiangFin): Pan-Finance new media, focusing on Fintech, blockchain and other financial and financial fields. A special contributor to magazines such as Fortune Life.